Always lots of chatter about how social media plays a role in elections. You know, social media was the ONLY reason US President Barack Obama and Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi won their posts.
There is even a theory that the candidate with the most Facebook followers or Likes will win. In November 2011 three mayoral Candidates who I supported and assisted all won and all had the greatest number of Facebook followers versus their opponents.
Curious, ain’t it?
So as we have seen from my extensive examples above, social media can elect a President and a bunch of Mayors…but how about British Columbia Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) in a byelection? Can future MLAs feel the magic that is social media?
Thankfully last night we had two byelections in BC so we can test out some social media theories.
Our candidates from Port Moody-Coquitlam were Joe Trasolini – NDP; Christine Clarke – BC Conservatives and Dennis Marsden – BC Liberals.
For Chilliwack-Hope we had Gwen O’Mahony – NDP; John Martin – BC Conservatives; Laurie Throness – BC Liberals and Lewis Clarke Dahlby – Libertarian. NOTE: since Dahlby did not have a social media presence, he was left out of this study.
So here is my methodology (which is Latin for “stuff I did to collect the data you are about to read”): At 5pm Wednesday (the day before the election) I wrote down most of the numbers you will see in the charts at the bottom of the post from the candidate’s Facebook, Twitter and Klout sites. I also used Topsy to get some of the cumulative figures over the 30 days leading up to yesterday. The election results were recorded AFTER the election. Hope you were able to follow my awesome research techniques.
FINDINGS
The voting results for both Chilliwack-Hope and Port Moody-Coquitlam show that yes indeed, the number of Facebook followers “predicted” not only the winners, but the second, third and fourth place finishers with 100% accuracy.
In Chilliwack, the candidates’ voting results mirrored all but one of the measured social media areas.
In Port Moody the social media measurements were not across the board reflective of the voting results but the third place finisher in votes always finished third with social media. Also the second place finisher dominated with Twitter followers but that result did not mirror the number of votes he received.
Both elections saw the parties finish in the same order: 1st NDP; 2nd BC Liberals and 3rd BC Conservatives.
CONCLUSIONS
Social media is a valuable tool in recruiting, engaging and activating volunteers, supporters and voters. It seems the more Facebook “Likes” a candidate receives is indicative of the final voting results. Therefore campaigns must have a thoughtful, Team based social media stratedgy in place which is used well before the election is announced and of course during the election period. Campaigns still fail to engage on social media and while more difficult to quantify, anecdotal evidence indicates that even though engagement was poor, the rankings in that area would be the same for the above candidates as the final voting results.
Since the parties placed in the same order in both elections (1st NDP; 2nd BC Liberals and 3rd BC Conservatives) and with Facebook “Likes”, this may highlight the differences between the parties on the importance of social media in their election / communications / engagement planning.
So what do you think? Is the “Facebook Likes equals final results” just a coincidence? Or is it an obvious measure of a candidate’s popularity which translates into votes? Share your thoughts in the comment section below.
Port Moody Byelection
| Joe Trasolini - NDP | Christine Clarke - BC Con | Dennis Marsden - BC Lib | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Facebook Likes / Rank | 338 / 1 | 59 / 3 | 100 / 2 |
| % of Total Candidate Likes | 68% | 11.9% | 20.1% |
| Talking About / Rank | 26 / 1 | 20 / 2 | 19 / 3 |
| Twitter Followers / Rank | 195 / 2 | 82 / 3 | 360 / 1 |
| % of Total Candidate Followers | 30.6% | 12.9% | 56.5% |
| Twitter Updates / Rank | 96 / 2 | 74 / 3 | 216 / 1 |
| % of Total Candidate Updates | 24.9% | 19.2% | 56% |
| Twitter Replies to Candidate / Rank (see chart below) | 106 / 2 | 77 / 3 | 114 / 1 |
| % of Total Candidate Mentions | 35.7% | 25.9% | 38.4% |
| Votes / Rank | 6,070 / 1 | 1.720 / 3 | 3.377 / 2 |
| % of Total Candidate Votes | 54.36% | 15.4% | 30.24% |
Chilliwack Byelection
| Gwen O'Mahony - NDP | John Martin - BC Con | Laurie Throness - BC Lib | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Facebook Likes / Rank | 357 / 1 | 60 / 3 | 192 / 2 |
| % of Total Candidate Likes | 58.6% | 9.9% | 31.5% |
| Talking About / Rank | 74 / 1 | 14 / 3 | 67 / 2 |
| Twitter Followers / Rank | 272 / 1 | 73 / 3 | 248 / 2 |
| % of Total Candidate Followers | 45.9% | 12.3% | 41.8% |
| Twitter Updates / Rank | 156 / 2 | 29 / 3 | 375 / 1 |
| % of Total Candidate Updates | 27.9% | 5.2% | 67% |
| Twitter Replies to Candidate / Rank (see chart below) | 301 / 1 | 82 / 3 | 133 / 2 |
| % of Total Candidate Mentions | 58.3% | 15.9% | 25.8% |
| Votes / Rank | 5.772 / 1 | 3,548 / 3 | 4,399 / 2 |
| % of Total Candidate Votes | 41.19% | 25.32% | 31.39% |
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I think one factor that needs to be considered is the function of how a campaign got more likes. Most campaigns will ask their close Facebook friends to like, as well as share in on different social media channels. I think the function of a Facebook page on small campaigns is a more related to an internal campaign team, than public engagement. I see it relating in two ways:
1) More likes equals more engaged and motivated campaign team – A campaign that has time to devote “acquiring” more likes is likely a campaign that can afford to put time into this endeavour because their volunteers are motviated and recognize their is larger chance at victory. Volunteer time should be focued on voter ID. The fact a campaign can devote time to acquiring likes means they probably have a very motivated group who are putting alot of time into the campaign.
2) More likes equals smarter campaign team – Some campaigns ignore social media because they don’t understand it. A page that has more likes could be a function of a more advanced team, rather than a function of how many votes they will get. A smarter, more well-run campaign will usually win.
I don’t want to imply that astroturfing plays a large role. But I think social media accounts should be viewed as a function of the engagement and organization of a campaign team, rather than focusing on likes and followers as purely a function of public support.
Thoughts?