Reporting actual 2011 election results via social media has zero effect

There is a lot of hoopla surrounding Canadian election results reporting in the age of social media. With the Federal election just under a week away I fear this hoopla could turn into a full scale brouhaha.

With many media outlets covering this topic I want to be sure I get my piece of air time. Er, I mean, contribute to the intelligent discussion of this important matter.

Which I started to do on CKNW yesterday afternoon with this interview:

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…and again this afternoon with Michael Smyth on CKNW:

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…and yet another with Jessica Samuels on AM1150:

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(note from this interview, I said “Liberals and Conservatives form a coalition”…I meant “Liberals and NDP”. Doh.)

…and this one on April 27th Sabrina Pearson on Mountain FM in beautiful Whistler, BC:

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Here is the issue boiled down: the East Coast finishes voting before the West Coast and if results from the East are known before votes are cast in the West, this could affect if and how folks in the West vote.

Elections Canada forbids anyone, including news outlets, from reporting results until the polls are closed all across Canada under threat of $25,000 fine. The Internet with such global reach has made this as ridiculous as Lou Bega releasing a “Best of” CD.

Elections Canada has given this some thought and implemented staggered voting hours (see chart below). In fact Elections Canada gave an extra special stagger to the Eastern Time Zone which has Ontario and Quebec totaling 59% of the entire seats in the Canadian Parliament. NOTE: much to the chagrin of many politicos and journalists, the term “staggered” does not directly refer to nor encourage drunkenness.

Canada's Staggered Voting Hours for 2011

This means voting in Newfoundland finishes at 4pm BC time so results could start flowing out by 4:30pm. This is roughly 2.5 hours before the polls close in beautiful British Columbia.

So, does this matter?

Before I answer that, I want to further test out this tables plugin I just installed by displaying the results by Party by Province for the 2006 and 2008 Elections so you can see how things changed over the last two trips to the polls:

Federal Election Seat Results by Province 2006 vs 2008

What I see from the above is that most Provinces had very little change in results in numbers of actual seats except in Ontario where the Conservatives picked up 11 seats while the Liberals lost 16. Of course this was before the threat of social media spoiling the democratic process in this election.

So in summary, here are the results by Party 2006 vs 2008:

Federal Election Seat Results by Party 2006 vs 2008

Now let’s take another look at the voting schedules across Canada on Election day, what BC or Pacific time they close and what percentage of seats those regions hold (again really want to test this tables plugin):

% of Seats Voted On By Close of Regional Polls

In short, 10% of the country finishes voting with 2.5 hours remaining in BC and 88% of votes are in with 30 minutes left in BC voting.

So NOW does social media pushing out the results matter? I mean, 88% of the country is done voting before we here in BC have finished voting and we here in BC are eagerly awaiting voting instructions from our Eastern friends, so this is a problem, right?!

Wait…there’s more…

A poll came out last week suggesting the NDP could be up in support during this election. In fact, a LOT of support. In Quebec and from the Bloc. Due to the Bloc being just a Quebec party there is no way this would allow the NDP to form a majority – even if they took 100% of the Quebec seats. Let’s say this were to happen, the result would not be known in BC until roughly 7pm BC time…when our voting finishes.

Still, Ekos Politics released a poll late yesterday suggesting 100 seats for the NDP. So here is how they see it breaking down:

2008 Federal Election Results vs Ekos Projection

Ok, I’ll play. Thirty minutes left in voting, Elections Canada who are clearly known for their efficient systems wraps up the counting of ballots in 10 seconds. The NDP have a wave of support in the East and the focus turns to Alberta and BC. Will Albertans decide to support an NDP majority? In 2006 100% of Alberta seats were Conservative and in 2008 all but one was Conservative. The likelihood of Alberta changing their Conservative voting ways en masse because anonymous folks on social media tell them to with 30 minutes remaining in the vote is slim.

So, onto BC. Even if the Conservative seats in BC gets cut in half this will NOT be because the results were known, rather because the mood of the voters changed before election day. If you were going to vote – you have voted by the time 30 minutes remain in the vote. There is no way to mobilize the numbers required to “strategically” vote based on Eastern results with 30 minutes remaining in BC voting.

The only real strategic vote in this election is in the hands of Quebec. That is, do not vote Bloc, vote NDP so that the Liberals and NDP can form a Coalition Government without the need of partnering with the separatists…even if those guys from Quebec make the best poutine.

If this is the only play in play, then Tweeting out election results from Atlantic Canada and Newfoundland into Quebec to defeat a Party (the Bloc) which is only in Quebec is moot. As polls have suggested, the mood and desire of the voters to move in this direction is happening now – NOT because of knowing the results of Eastern Provinces.

In conclusion – sharing the known voting results via social media will have zero effect on motivating voters in BC because there is simply no time nor desire to change one’s vote due to the outcome in another part of the country.

That said, Elections Canada will need to review this procedure. My guess is electronic voting will occur for the next election. This electronic voting should wrap up two hours before local polling station voting wraps up. This would prevent the possible mass automated last minute strategic voting which could prove problematic to this whole process (more on that in a later post).

So for you social media ninjas, gurus, Jedis, slackavists and parent basement dwellers: the best way to effect change with social media is to use it before and during campaigns to educate, motivate and activate voters. Try it out in the last few days of this election and in the months before the next one.